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<div class="PlainText">Timely seminar this Wednesday at the
math.department. / Edvard</div>
<div class="PlainText">>>><br>
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<div class="PlainText">Hi all,<br class="">
<br class="">
Due to the coronavirus outbreak, we will have a special
Mathematical<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
Statistics seminar given by Tom Britton, this Wednesday at
15.15. The<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
talk will give an overview of mathematical models for the
spread of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
infectious diseases.<br class="">
<br class="">
Note that the talk is in House 5, Room 15. Full details
below.<br class="">
<br class="">
Tony<br class="">
<br class="">
---------------------------------------------------<br
class="">
<br class="">
Date and Time: Wednesday March 4, 15.15 - 16.15.<br class="">
<br class="">
Location: Kräftriket House 5, Room 15.<br class="">
<br class="">
Speaker: Tom Britton (SU)<br class="">
<br class="">
Title: Mathematical modelling of infectious disease
outbreaks<br class="">
<br class="">
Abstract:<br class="">
<br class="">
Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases
are used to:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
better understand spreading mechanisms, determine if a big
outbreak is<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
likely to occur and how big it will be, determine if a
disease will<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
become endemic, and investigate how various preventive
measures can<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
reduce spreading hopefully preventing a major pandemic
outbreak or make<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
an endemic disease vanish. Making inference is harder than
usual in that<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
the basic events, transmissions, are rarely observed but
instead proxies<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
like onset of symptoms are recorded, and also by the fact
that these<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
events are dependent rather than independent (as is usually
the case).<br class="">
<br class="">
In the talk I will give an overview of the area with
particular focus on<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br
class="">
emerging outbreaks, with illustrations on the current
coronavirus outbreak.</div>
</span></font></div>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
====================================
Edvard Mortsell
Stockholm University
Department of Physics
SE-106 91 Stockholm
Sweden
Tel: +46-8-55378535
Web: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.fysik.su.se/~edvard/">http://www.fysik.su.se/~edvard/</a>
==================================== </pre>
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